Decline of Opportunities? Threats and Strategic Choices for Future Proof Universities

We will show how higher education in many countries is coming under pressure from a triple challenge: declining student numbers (“double shrinkage”), shifting societal expectations, and growing governance turbulence. We also show what systemic reforms are needed to remain future-proof.

Core questions
-How should higher education respond to falling domestic and international enrolments?
-How can institutions maintain their societal “licence to operate” amid criticism, instrumentalisation and declining returns to degrees?
-What governance, funding and organisational changes are needed to cope with increasing uncertainty and turbulence?

Key takeaways
-Shrinkage and societal pressure cannot be solved institution by individual universities.
-A shared long-term vision toward 2035, stronger system-level governance, a redesigned funding model, strategic scenario planning, and more collaboration are essential to avoid fragmentation, loss of quality, and declining public support for higher education.
-It is vital that the central government should take a leading role.

Our presentation elaborates how this can be done. Our evidence base comes from a series of strategy projects and change projects in Dutch universities, as well as a country comparison that was conducted for the Dutch Ministry of Education and Sciences (2025-2026). The study identified challenges in higher education systems in ten countries, as well as policy responses to these challenges. It was conducted by the University of Twente and Mellom Advisory.

Literatur: Will follow.